Why did the BJP lose?

I was surprised by the election results declared on May 16th 2009. I am not a psephologist but I am sure, the outcome of elections would have surprised even the most competent of psephologists.

Congress won! With a thumping seat share. With close to 205 seats on its own, and about another 60 seats from its allies, the Congress needs only a few more to arrive at the magic figure of 272 (of the total 543). This has catapulted Dr. Manmohan Singh back to the PM's gaddi! And Mrs. Sonia Gandhi, Mr. Rahul Gandhi and Mrs. Priyanka Gandhi (SRP henceforth, thanks to Mr. Narendra Modi for coining this term) are back in business!

As the public sentiment is always with the underdog, my sentiments were with the BJP! However, with every move that the BJP made, I could not help but feel sorry for it. It was like watching BJP dig it's own grave (which it has sadly, done very successfully!)

The BJP, for starters, had everything going her way:

1. High inflation, that too, just before the polls!

2. A terrorist attack!

3. A weak response to Pakistan by the Congress government.

4. A meek opposition (in the form of Dr. Manmohan Singh).

5. Key electoral win in Karnataka.

6. Mrs. Gandhi's foreign origin.

7. Mr. Rahul Gandhi's dubious educational record.

8. And many more...

The BJP had to just communicate these to the masses and the mandate would have been hers. But the BJP, being BJP, screwed it royally!

Though many media pundits and psephologists will come out with reasons for BJP's defeat, I would like to make just a few comments on why I think she lost so badly. These are neither deeply analytical with theories of Political Science, nor are these supported by hundreds of years of election data and pattern analyses. These are just a few common sense based observations, that I (the average voter) can figure out but the giant BJP could not!

1. MEDIA unfriendliness - There's an old proverb in Hindi: "समंदर में रहना है तो मगरमच्छ से बैर मत लो!" (don't mess with the crocodile, if you want stay in that water body). And BJP has the habit of doing exactly that! It has never learnt to work with the media, let alone make media work for herself! Time and again, it acts like the teenager, who get agitated on slightest discomfort and is ready to severe the ties with everyone! The BJP just can't get the fact that it is the 24-hour news channels (read: gossip channels) which creates public opinion in India (these channels have a wide audience, as these are the cheapest source of infotainment (information and information) nowadays, and India being a country of limited means, would use this cheapest source for all its infotainment!)

Dating back to Mr. Narendra Modi's quitting the interview with Mr. Karan Thapar (Devil's Advocate) to Mr. L K Advani's remarks that is was Media that was responsible for Mr. Varun Gandhi's hijacking of BJP's agenda, it has always proven that BJP is just a teenager in Politics! On the other hand, Congress, the 125 year old "budhiya" (which is just Hindi for feminine "old" and not the "old woman" which the media portrayed it as), is rich with experience on how to deal with the public and the media and on how make both to work for itself! Any average Indian would be able to tell that most (read: all!) media networks in India are pro-Congress, and they play a big role in the Congress' image building. And also, the BJP's image building. The only difference is that the former is positive while the latter is negative.

I suspect somebody from the BJP would pick this blog up (as BJP is quite active on the internet: 4bjp.org (friends of BJP), narendramodi.in, lkadvani.in, ananthkumar.in and many more) and can discuss the merit of this arguement.

2. IMAGE issues - BJP has real and serious issues with it's image. It is still being seen as the fundamentalist, violent party which would not think twice before damaging the social fabric of the country. The Babri masjid demolition (ironically, which propelled BJP into power), the Gujarat mishap (though said to be a reaction to the 60 men, women and children being burnt alive in a train in Godhra) and the Kandhamal mishap (said to be a reaction against forced conversion of Hindus into Christianity) are certain to be brought up during every poll. This would not only alienate the Muslim & Christian votes from the BJP, but also, would make the Hindus (of which most are conservative) think twice about voting BJP back into power. This time around, BJP tried to set correct that issue, by talking about the development in Gujarat, issue of Indian money in Swiss banks, national intergrity, strong response to terrorists etc., but it got sucked back into the ghosts of its past (reminds me of Michael Corleone of The Godfather III, where he says "just when I thought I was out of it, they pulled back in!"). And let this be very clear, Congress is definitely going to bring such issues alive from their graves whenever required.

Even Congress has the 1984 anti-sikh Delhi riots to her credit (which made them take back Jagdish Tytler and Sajjan Kumar in Delhi this time), but Congress, due to its experience, has made a smart move to nullify the Sikh arguement. How? By making Dr. Manmohan Singh, a sikh, the PM! If BJP has any serious intentions to get to power on its own, then it has to do something, of great significance, which will stare at your face, and tell you, that BJP is not anti-muslim or anti-christian or anti-any religion. Mr. L K Advani tried to do that when he was in Pakistan, by making a comment about Jinnah being secular, but instead of capitalising on it, the BJP went all-out against Mr. Advani himself. And the BJP not only lost a good opportunity, but also, made evident that it was the hardline Hindu party which is intolerant to any other point of view and is naive to react mercurially against its own leader.

3. LATE starter - BJP was a very late starter in campaigning for the General Elections. They started (with due seriousness) only about a month ahead of elections, that too after a very public spat between Mr. Arun Jaitley and Mr. Sudhanshu Mittal (courtesy: Media). It was so bad that Mr. Jaitley even cut a few parliamentary board meetings (so much for having one's priority right). Most of the senior campaingners had to stretch themselves to limits to just address the rallies. Mr. Advani did close to 300 rallies, Mr. Narendra Modi close to 300 rallies, Mrs. Sushma Swaraj another 150 or so and so on. On the other hand, Congress had it all planned. The taxpayers money being distributed to prospective voters for free (NREGA), the taxpayers money being distributed to government officials for free (6th Pay Commission, whereby government officials were given fat hikes, that too retrespectively) and spending a good amount of the taxpayers money for direct and indirect advertising. While all this while consciously playing dumb that the NREGA and 6th Pay Commission is not really effective (reminds me of Tsun Tsu's Art of War where he says "All war is deception"). Not to mention that the stock markets mirculously started an upward move just before the elections (and so did LIC's stake is various banks and other stocks). All in all, the strategy is appeasement. To make sure that one is being taken care of, or atleast is made to feel so! At the right time!

I really doubt that BJP will be able to figure this out even in the next 50 years! A few leaders in BJP appear to be smart (likes of Mr. Narendra Modi, Mr. Arun Shorie, Mr. Arun Jaitley etc.) to realise this game plan and the shortcomings of the party, but then they have to go lengths to do away with the impediments within the party.

In the end, as the public sentiment is with the underdog...there could be no underdog other than BJP who, the public expects to rise up and defeat the Goliath Congress! And victory, is definitely sweet!